The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The revised guidelines are aimed at curbing discretionary practices by field officers, especially the tendency to seek documents not mandated under the law.
Retail inflation inched up to 0.71 per cent in November on rising prices of vegetables, protein-rich items, and fuel, government data showed on Friday. The consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation had fallen to a record low of 0.25 per cent in October, mainly due to lower prices helped by GST rate cuts and a favourable base.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
Goods and services tax (GST) collections from mobile device companies, amounting to Rs 1.82 trillion between 2020-21 (FY21) and 2023-24 (FY24), have already generated more than five times the revenue for the government compared to the Rs 34,149 crore allocated under the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for mobile devices over six years ending 2025-26 (FY26). Currently, the GST on mobile devices stands at 18 per cent.
Gross GST collection in March grew 9.9 per cent to over Rs 1.96 lakh crore, government data showed on Tuesday.
Even as non-life insurers reported muted premium growth in October, standalone health insurers saw a robust 38 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) surge. This growth was driven by pent-up demand in the retail health insurance segment.
Overall economic activity continued to hold up in November with demand conditions remaining robust, thanks to strengthening urban demand, but manufacturing and rural demand showed some signs of deceleration even as services remained strong, according to an article on the State of the Economy written by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials in the central bank's December bulletin.
Retail inflation slipped to 1.54 per cent in September from 2.07 per cent in the preceding month mainly due to subdued prices of food items, including vegetables and pulses, according to government data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was 5.49 per cent in September 2024.
Rural India outpaced urban centres in passenger vehicle sales in 2025, recording a growth of 12 per cent compared with 8 per cent in cities.
Gross GST revenue rose 12.3 per cent to Rs 1.96 lakh crore in January on higher domestic economic activity, government data showed on Saturday. This includes 10.4 per cent growth in revenue from sale of goods and services domestically at Rs 1.47 lakh crore and 19.8 per cent rise in tax revenue from imported goods at Rs 48,382 crore.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said tax cuts in the current fiscal has dented India's revenue growth, leaving less scope for fiscal policy support for the economy.
Recent years have been turbulent for the insurance industry due to direct and indirect tax reforms, regulatory overhaul and other external pressures. The events cumulatively slowed growth rate to single digits from the high teens seen earlier.
The government should refrain from raising income tax surcharge on the super-rich and reintroducing wealth tax in the upcoming 2026-27 Budget, as the move could prompt persons in high-income brackets to leave the country for low-tax jurisdictions, according to tax experts.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd expects contribution of SUVs to its overall sales to go beyond 70 per cent with it making foray into the fast growing mid-sized segment with a premium positioning of its Sierra model, according to its Managing Director & CEO, Shailesh Chandra.
Equity markets this week would keenly track the upcoming GST Council meeting, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors for further movement, analysts said. Moreover, developments related to tariff negotiations, global market trends and auto sales data would also drive investors' sentiment.
Both the life and non-life insurance segment posted over 20 per cent premium growth in November for the first time in this financial year (FY26), supported by the reduction in goods and services tax (GST) on premiums from 18 per cent to zero and a favourable base effect.
Government schemes such as the PM E-Drive initiative, with allocations of around Rs 2,000 crore for charging points deployment, are helping accelerate rollout
'The bigger unknown remains global geopolitics, which is inherently unpredictable, including developments in our neighbourhood.' 'Another concern is the increasing tilt of government finances towards welfare subsidies, especially at the state level.' 'This could constrain capital expenditure, which is critical for long-term growth.'
After a record-breaking year, India's automobile industry is entering 2026 on a relatively strong footing, with sales growth expected in the 6-8 per cent range. The outlook is underpinned by policy support, including GST rationalisation, easing monetary conditions, and income tax relief, which together are likely to improve affordability and sustain consumer demand across vehicle segments.
The gross GST collection rose 7.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1.77 lakh crore in December. The Central GST collection stood at Rs 32,836 crore, State GST at Rs 40,499 crore, Integrated IGST at Rs 47,783 crore and Cess at Rs 11,471 crore, according to government data released on Wednesday.
Trading pattern in the stock market this week will largely depend on the ongoing Q3 earnings announcement from corporates, global trends, and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Moreover, geopolitical developments and any update on trade negotiations would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted.
'The impact will be minimal and it will only increase compliance cost on consent, data flows, localisation timelines, internal audits, data mapping, and new tooling.'
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
About 1.2 trillion tax evasion cases have been detected and as many as 59,000 entities identified for verification in order to ascertain whether they are fake.
From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, State Bank of India and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Bajaj Finance, Titan and Tech Mahindra were the laggards.
Gross GST collections grew 8.5 per cent to over Rs 1.82 lakh crore in November on account of increased sales spurred by the festive season.
Prices of televisions are expected to rise by 3-4 per cent from January next year on account of the rising cost of memory chips and depreciation of the rupee, which recently crossed the 90-to-a-dollar mark for the first time.
The automobile and auto-ancillary sector is expected to show strong Q3FY26 results, aided by festival-led demand, rationalisation in goods and services tax (GST) rates for select categories of vehicles, easing interest rates, and improving rural sentiment.
Among Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and Larsen & Toubro closed with losses. However, Power Grid, NTPC, Tata Steel and Hindustan Unilever were the major gainers.
India's services sector growth witnessed the slowest pace of expansion in five months in October, as competitive pressures and heavy rains in parts of the country led to a slower increase in output, according to a monthly survey released on Thursday.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
Growth of eight key infrastructure sectors remained flat in October as expansion in output of petroleum refinery products, fertiliser and steel was offset by a contraction in coal and electricity production, according to official data released on Thursday.
Domestic PMI data, US Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the progress on India-US trade deal negotiations are likely to influence movement in the equity market in the week ahead, according to analysts. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards. However, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Maruti, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Ports and HCL Tech were among the gainers.
GST collections in July rose 10.3 per cent to over Rs 1.82 lakh crore, mainly driven by domestic transactions in goods and services, according to official data released on Thursday. This is the third-highest-ever monthly collection recorded since the indirect tax regime was rolled out 7 years ago on July 1, 2017. According to the data, total refunds stood at Rs 16,283 crore in July.
